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Daily analyst comments

Polyus Gold publishes FY2009 IFRS consolidated report

Polymetal

Capitalization
4 071 375 000,00 $
Common shares
Price 12,93 $
Target price 8,10 $
Price changing
week
month
year
10,0% 1,0% 61,6%

30.04.10 11:27

Polyus managed to improve all of margin figures in 2009 in comparison with the preceding year, thanks to a recovery on the precious metal market. As global prices for gold stabilize at above USD 1000 per oz, we expect company margins to advance further. In the meantime, despite the current outstandingly favorable market climate, we regard the market value of Polyus Gold as overstated and assign it a SELL rating.

On April 29, Polyus Gold (RTS: PLZL) published a FY2009 consolidated IFRS financial statement. The company’s revenue advanced 13% y-o-y in the reporting period, up to USD 1.22 billion, EBITDA grew by 15% to USD 549 million, and net income surged more than 400% to 323 million. We note the company managed to reduce the unit cost of gold production last year to USD 391 per oz.

Table 1. Polyus Gold: Key finances, mn USD

  2009A 2008A 2009E 2009A/2008A 2009A/2009E
Revenue 1225 1 087 1 199 13% 2%
EBITDA 549 476 564 15% -3%
EBITDA margin 45% 44% 47%    
Net income 323 60 343 435% -6%
Net margin 26% 6% 29%    
Source: Polyus Gold, Finam estimates

The company’s 2009 revenue performance was just 2% higher than our expectations, at a time when income numbers fell slightly below our estimates, as we had forecast Polyus to lower administrative costs during the crisis.

The company managed to improve all of its margin figures in comparison with the preceding year, thanks to a recovery on the precious metal market. As global gold prices stabilize at above USD 1000 per oz, we expect the company’s margins to advance further. For reference, last year, sales prices for gold averaged USD 969 per oz. However, despite the outstandingly favorable market climate, we regard the current market price for Polyus Gold as overpriced. Our rating for the security is SELL with a 12-month target of USD 38.80 per share.

Vladimir Sergievskiy Other comments of the day

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