Upcoming Events
| Date | Event | Analyst forecasts and comments |
|---|---|---|
Chemicals & Petrochemicals |
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| 01.04.10 — 30.04.10 | Acron is to publish IFRS financials for FY 2009. | Our estimates show a 14% decline in FY 2009 revenue y-o-y to RUB 37 billion. EBITDA should contract 53% to RUB 8 billion and net income slump 67% to RUB 3 billion. A downswing in all of the key financial indices is likely to result from the fall in nitrogen fertilizer prices in late 2008 and early 2009. Strong demand for Acron products will lend support to the company’s financial results. We estimate the company’s full-year production results to remain practically unchanged from year-earlier levels. |
| 01.04.10 — 30.04.10 | Dorogobuzh is to release IFRS financials for FY 2009. | We expect a worsening of full-year financial results from the company amid unfavorable trends on the mineral fertilizer market. However, the downturn will be flatter than that for Acron, reflecting marked improvements in the company’s FY 2009 production indicators on the back of strong demand for its products and the completion of a period of scheduled repairs. |
| 01.04.10 — 30.04.10 | Uralkali is to publish IFRS financials for FY 2009. | Our prediction foresees a 31% drop in Uralkali revenue to RUB 44 billion. EBITDA should slide 43% to RUB 24 billion and net income suffer a 51% drop, to RUB 15 billion. The steep decline in the financial indicators is attributable to a decrease in global potash prices and softer demand for the product on the part of key consumers, in particular, China. We do not expect Uralkali to conclude a contract with China earlier than the beginning of 2010. |
Financial sector |
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| 20.03.10 — 31.03.10 | Vozrozhdenie Bank to release FY 2009 IFRS financials. |
We expect rising pressure on the bank’s interest margin due to an increase in its cost of funding. However, we believe that the bank’s assets and loan portfolio remained stable until the end of 2009. |
| 01.04.10 — 15.04.10 | Saint Petersburg Bank to release FY 2009 IFRS financials. | High uncertainty over NPL growth lingers. Given the industry structure of its loan portfolio, with a high share of the sectors hit hardest by the crisis (construction, development, mechanical engineering and transport), there is a risk of a sharp rise in the bank’s NPLs. However, this risk is gradually diminishing. |
| 07.04.10 | Sberbank to publish FY 2009 IFRS financials. |
We believe that hefty revenues on core activities and good loan portfolio quality will allow Sberbank to form NPL provisions in necessary amounts, while still enjoying a modest net income. We expect Sberbank to make a net income in FY 2009 of RUB 35-40 billion under IFRS. |
| 20.04.10 | VTB to disclose FY 2009 IFRS financials. |
VTB may have marginally lowered its allocations to NPL provisions in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter. However, we expect the bank to close 2009 with a sizeable loss, projected at RUB 76.4 billion. Making matters worse, the quality of its loan portfolio continues to give rise to concern. |
Mechanical Engineering |
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| 01.05.10 — 15.05.10 | Sollers to post FY 2009 IFRS financials. |
We expect the car maker’s revenue to have declined by 57% in 2009 on the back of a 52% fall in output. In addition, Sollers may have incurred a huge loss on currency translation differences because of the ruble depreciation. In total, we expect the company to close FY 2009 at a USD 192 million net loss. |
Metals |
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| 10.04.10 — 10.05.10 | Steel company operating results for 1Q 2010. | The first quarter of 2010 should see slightly better conditions for steel companies without in-house resource bases. Contractual prices for iron ore products, which grew in the fourth quarter of 2009, are still likely be more attractive than first-quarter spot prices, which have extended growth after the start of 2010. Sales volumes are unlikely to grow in the first quarter due to a seasonal slack in the construction sector, but a rally in steel prices should have a positive impact on steel companies’ margins. This is especially true of companies that give priority to steel exports. |
O&G |
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| 17.03.10 | Regular session of OPEC member states in Vienna. |
The OPEC session is expected to be held according to plan. OPEC spokespersons have repeatedly stated that oil prices in the range of USD70–80/bbl are quite comfortable for them. Therefore, we expect no changes in OPEC oil production quotas or any other significant initiatives in the wake of the meeting. |
Transportation |
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| 01.04.10 — 15.04.10 | NCSP to post FY 2009 consolidated financials. |
We expect the seaport to report upbeat financial performances, thanks to the commissioning of new capacity in 2009, which enabled NCSP to boost cargo turnover by 6%. The fact that the company’s tariffs are denominated in US dollars, at a time when its expenses are counted in rubles, also helped NCSP improve its operational productivity. |
| 01.06.10 — 15.06.10 | Aeroflot to post FY 2009 IFRS financials. |
A drop in jet fuel prices in 2009 should have reduced pressure on the air carrier’s margins. In addition, Aeroflot’s new management has made active efforts to raise the company’s productivity and streamline its route network: this should have helped Aeroflot raise its FY 2009 revenue compared to the year-earlier period. |