May 12. Swiss francs and Russian rubles will provide protection against a financial crisis.

Instability on global markets continues, which pushes up crude prices and dampens the greenback. The online conference "Currency and Hydrocarbons: New Records, New Trends" that was conducted on the website of Finam Investment Company discussed the current economic environment and forecasts for the future. Experts reached the conclusion that stabilization on the US stock market is quite possible, but crude contracts will continue to climb.

Currently, the American equity market is of substantial influence on other international trading floors. Therefore, it is important in principle for Russian investors how the US economy will evolve in the near future. Taking into account macroeconomic indicators, the peak of the crisis is over, Zerich Capital Management analyst Evgeny Ryabov is confident. He thinks that starting in the second half of 2008 the American economy will embark on the road to recovery, adding that "difficulties remain only in the housing market and they have not yet been localized". He went on to say that in general the Fed's rate cut hit the mark.

Head of global research at Finam Investment Holding Mikhail Aristakesyan is of another opinion. He believes that the crisis in the American economy is not behind us and has not even begun to turn around. He went on to say that "what US monetary authorities are doing now is something like prescribing anaesthetics to a cancer patient and saying this will help him recover. Until the presidential elections the state authorities will do their utmost to prevent the problems in the financial sector from deepening". Be that as it may, the next US president, in his opinion, will not manage to avoid the adoption of unpopular decisions. Doubts about the stability of the American economy were also voiced by National Reserve Bank analyst Alexander Demianovich who reckons that such statements are premature: "we have not seen the beginning of a recession in the traditional sense of the word, but this does not mean that we won't see it in 2Q 2008. We, therefore, expect Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will not stop lowering the federal funds rate: in this case it's better to overshoot rather than to undershoot".

If the Fed decides to hold rates steady, Russian stocks could take a dive after downbeat sentiment emerges on global markets, Aristakesyan thinks. Finam Management chief economist Alexander Osin holds a different viewpoint. He thinks upside on the American and Russian stock markets is possible provided that the Fed keeps interest rates flat. This could happen in the event of a cash outflow from the segments of low-yield assets and commodity futures.

Fundamental data from the oil cartel's leaders show that output exceeds real consumption, i.e. crude on global exchanges is considerably oversold. This situation stems from the dollar's substantial weakening against the euro and also galloping inflation in recent years. Osin is of the opinion that crude prices could hit USD 200 a barrel in the next few years. This forecast could materialize as early as 2010.

Aristakesyan believes that the Swiss franc could turn into the most stable currency in the next two or three years. Be that as it may, the Russian ruble is also quite steady, Demianovich is confident, adding that "the Russian currency is pegged to the dollar/euro basket, as a result of which its fluctuations are smoothed out. Cumulative international reserves will definitely enable the Bank of Russia to maintain this pegging for a long time even if foreign trade conditions deteriorate drastically".

Public and Media Service, Finam Investment Holding