Upcoming Events
| Date | Event | Analyst forecasts and comments |
|---|---|---|
Chemicals & Petrochemicals |
||
| 01.04.10 — 30.04.10 | Acron is to publish IFRS financials for FY 2009. | Our estimates show a 14% decline in FY 2009 revenue y-o-y to RUB 37 billion. EBITDA should contract 53% to RUB 8 billion and net income slump 67% to RUB 3 billion. A downswing in all of the key financial indices is likely to result from the fall in nitrogen fertilizer prices in late 2008 and early 2009. Strong demand for Acron products will lend support to the company’s financial results. We estimate the company’s full-year production results to remain practically unchanged from year-earlier levels. |
| 01.04.10 — 30.04.10 | Dorogobuzh is to release IFRS financials for FY 2009. | We expect a worsening of full-year financial results from the company amid unfavorable trends on the mineral fertilizer market. However, the downturn will be flatter than that for Acron, reflecting marked improvements in the company’s FY 2009 production indicators on the back of strong demand for its products and the completion of a period of scheduled repairs. |
| 01.04.10 — 30.04.10 | Uralkali is to publish IFRS financials for FY 2009. | Our prediction foresees a 31% drop in Uralkali revenue to RUB 44 billion. EBITDA should slide 43% to RUB 24 billion and net income suffer a 51% drop, to RUB 15 billion. The steep decline in the financial indicators is attributable to a decrease in global potash prices and softer demand for the product on the part of key consumers, in particular, China. We do not expect Uralkali to conclude a contract with China earlier than the beginning of 2010. |
Financial sector |
||
| 18.02.10 | Court session on a TNK-BP lawsuit against the Federal Customs Service. |
In January, the court delayed hearings on the TNK-BP lawsuit until October. TNK-BP seeks RUB 6.22 billion in tax refunds from the FCS. According to our estimates, TNK-BP stands a good chance of winning the case. It is not excluded, however, that court litigation may drag on for several months. |
Metals |
||
| 10.04.10 — 10.05.10 | Steel company operating results for 1Q 2010. | The first quarter of 2010 should see slightly better conditions for steel companies without in-house resource bases. Contractual prices for iron ore products, which grew in the fourth quarter of 2009, are still likely be more attractive than first-quarter spot prices, which have extended growth after the start of 2010. Sales volumes are unlikely to grow in the first quarter due to a seasonal slack in the construction sector, but a rally in steel prices should have a positive impact on steel companies’ margins. This is especially true of companies that give priority to steel exports. |
O&G |
||
| 17.03.10 | Regular session of OPEC member states in Vienna. |
The OPEC session is expected to be held according to plan. OPEC spokespersons have repeatedly stated that oil prices in the range of USD70–80/bbl are quite comfortable for them. Therefore, we expect no changes in OPEC oil production quotas or any other significant initiatives in the wake of the meeting. |